COVID - Exposure Analysis

I've had some interesting conversations about Covid over recent weeks.  So I decided to do a simple analysis of my behavior....  Especially since Shearing Day is coming up which is very difficult to reschedule.

There are a variety of recommendations which change by variant.  So these are the assumptions I used for this analysis:

• The Incubation Period is 3-7 days.
• The Contagious Period is 3 days ahead and 10-20 days after symptoms present.
• The most contagious day is the day BEFORE symptoms present
• Testing is recommended at 5 days after symptoms present.
• Every interaction* outside of my household is a potential exposure.

* Not included in this analysis are visits to the Grocery/Feed/Hardware Stores or Gas Stations because I do not have these on my calendar and therefore have not been tracking them.

I took inventory of my interactions* outside of my immediate family for the month-ish prior to Shearing Day.  These have been categorized into Classes, Vet/Dog Show, Other Events, and Shearing Day.

First, here is the Conservative Model, or assuming everything happens at the latest date:

And here's the Short Model, or assuming everything happens at the earliest date:

So taking the bounds of both models and rolling everything up, we see this:

The short answer: of 36 days reviewed, I was/will be potentially the most contagious for all but 6 days.

Hopefully, this illustrates why we are still wearing masks and limiting interactions outside of our household... and why I think you should too.

Stay healthy my friends.