COVID - The Fallacy of Your Circle of Friends

Part of the recent conversations about Covid that prompted Thursday's post is that people tend to not to want to mask or maintain distance with people they know well.

So here's another simple analysis.

Let's assume I have a circle of 5 friends.... Me, Hubba, and 3 other people we know very well.

Since we're not actually a Cohort, our friends have their own small circle of trusted friends...

And so do theirs...

Eventually someone gets Covid (or the Flu, or some other infectious communicable disease).  Since we trust our friends implicitly, let's assume its one of their Friend's Friend's Friends, because we don't know that person.

And then this is how I would get sick.

You should be able to see how this can get complex quickly... especially if you work with other people in an office, retail store, or restaurant or have larger "Circles of Friends." 

I believe that most of us know this, but sometimes I think it's helpful to step thru the logic.

Also, most of us know that Government Mask Mandates are primarily about reducing the flow of patients thru the hospitals.

For the record.... my county and most of the Colorado Front Range has been in the High Risk Category, per the CDC, for the last few weeks.... AND while I work from home, my organization has re-mandated masking in the office and on our sites because there is untraceable community spread within the staff.

In my opinion, we should all be concerned about slowing the infection rate.

Slowing the infection rate slows the mutation rate of the virus... Conversly, the more the virus infects people, the more opportunity it has to evolve/mutate, and thereby migrating further away from the original variant, which therefore will make the vaccines the less effective.

Each variant of the virus presents a new opportunity for infection...  We personally know multiple people who have been infected multiple times.  

Hopefully this, again, illustrates why we continue to wear masks, maintain distance, and limit interactions... and why I think you should too.

This link takes you to a nice graphic and trend data reporting by the Mayo Clinic.

Stay Healthy my friends.

Fiber Arts Friday: The Box o' Unfinished Projects

I've referred to this box several times over the last couple of years...

The Lower One (the Upper is #SE2SE)

So now that we're on the other side of selling our former place, the creative juices are flowing, and I mentioned thee need to reclaim some tools last week... I decided it was time to deal with the Box.  sigh.

Spindle-spun Cashmere

This has been in slow (SLOW!) progress for quite some time, and will continue to move forward in this fashion.

Small Alpaca Tapestry Weaving

This small tapestry loom was part of an early class I took when we were new to alpaca.  I will reclaim this yarn for my Scrappy Palindrome.

Reclaiming Awesome Sweater Yarn

This also has been a long time project. 

I was dismayed that the sweater was steeked, but I will continue to reclaim this yarn for some future, unidentified project.

Nightcap

I loved working on this pattern and I used reclaimed yarn from a favorite sweater.

I think this one will stay as a reminder of the importance of gauge verses intended final measurements.

Baby Rudolf Hat

This was made with same reclaimed yarn as the Nightcap.  I like the finished fabric, but this hat is not long enough and the antler+ear placement has always bothered me.  Which is why it's still un-finished.

The yarn is being moved to my stash, the small bits are being made available for stuffing, and the hat has gone to the trash.

Rill Scarf

I really like this pattern and yarn.  But I do not like this fabric.  Every time I work on it, I think about ripping it out.

I'm into the third skein and I think about all the work I've already done, then I  decide to just muscle thru... But the reality is that I will like it more if the fabric is less stiff.  Sunk Costs be damned!!  So this one will be frogged (ripped out) and then re-started with larger needles.

New Normal Socks

Using the left over yarn from the New Normal Scarf, I embarked upon a pair of fun socks.

This yarn is thicker than I normally use, and it did not occur to me to adjust for that until I got into the heel.  I don't have enough stitches available to make my standard heel.... so I need to spend some time thinking about either a different heel strategy or adjusting where I make the instep.

This project is going on the shelf, for now.

Alpaca Experiment

I love this yarn and the fabric.  However, this project was my first attempt at designing something and it really isn't working.

I kept hoping that I might come back to it, but that is just not happening... and frankly, I already reclaimed the needles from it some time ago.  So this yarn will be reclaimed and returned to stash.

Pussy Hats

During the years of 45, this was all I could work on.  I ended up making a bunch of Pussy Hats and gave several of them away.

I thought I was done making these. So I frogged the in-progress one and then the Supreme Court leaked that they are planning to overturn Roe v. Wade.  Which means the pink yarn is likely to come back out.  grrrr.

Ugly Crocheted Scarf

It's actually not too ugly, but this was one of the first projects I did when I returned to yarn-related activities as an adult.  My gauge is all over the place.

This scarf was to be a gift, but it wasn't good enough (in my opinion) so it's been sitting here for way too long.

I really like the yarn, so this one will be frogged.

Improvised Hat

I really like the ideas I explored in this hat, but it needs to be larger.  I will write this pattern down, then remake it in a larger size.

Others

There are a few others that I'm not ready to talk about here.... These have been placed into a staging area.

There is a tray each for Frogging, Spinning, Continue/Finish, Weaving, and Design Finalization.

With everything now being dispositioned and sorted, the Box o' Unfinished Projects is empty!  WooHoo!!

Happy Fiber Arts Friday!!

COVID - Exposure Analysis

I've had some interesting conversations about Covid over recent weeks.  So I decided to do a simple analysis of my behavior....  Especially since Shearing Day is coming up which is very difficult to reschedule.

There are a variety of recommendations which change by variant.  So these are the assumptions I used for this analysis:

• The Incubation Period is 3-7 days.
• The Contagious Period is 3 days ahead and 10-20 days after symptoms present.
• The most contagious day is the day BEFORE symptoms present
• Testing is recommended at 5 days after symptoms present.
• Every interaction* outside of my household is a potential exposure.

* Not included in this analysis are visits to the Grocery/Feed/Hardware Stores or Gas Stations because I do not have these on my calendar and therefore have not been tracking them.

I took inventory of my interactions* outside of my immediate family for the month-ish prior to Shearing Day.  These have been categorized into Classes, Vet/Dog Show, Other Events, and Shearing Day.

First, here is the Conservative Model, or assuming everything happens at the latest date:

And here's the Short Model, or assuming everything happens at the earliest date:

So taking the bounds of both models and rolling everything up, we see this:

The short answer: of 36 days reviewed, I was/will be potentially the most contagious for all but 6 days.

Hopefully, this illustrates why we are still wearing masks and limiting interactions outside of our household... and why I think you should too.

Stay healthy my friends.

Fiber Arts Friday: Casting on Small and Simple

A few weeks ago, I learned that I would be taking a work trip in the summer to the Desert Southwest.... and started thinking that I wanted a small and simple project to bring with me.

My Save Our Sheep Sweater is fairly bulky now and it has moments of not being simple.  So it is not a travel candidate.

My Scrappy Palindrome has been getting recent attention and is absolutely simple, but it is definitely not small.  So while this is a travel candidate (only because I will be driving and not flying), the size of it means it will be very warm to work on.... a nice feature in the winter, but not as nice in the summer... in the desert.  ;-)

I also have my Box o' Unfinished projects.  But none of this was really speaking to me.

So I started thinking that I should start a pair of simple socks.

Step 1 - Select Yarn

I had bought a pair of fun skeins I wanted to use for Hubba, but for the life of me, I am unable to find them... My yarn/fiber stash has always been reasonably organized.... but since the settling in at the new place is going slowly, most bets are off.

Toward the end of my packing, all kinds of un-related things ended up in boxes together... and clearly that particular box is yet to be un-packed. :-/

The good news is that I do have a small bin of Sock Yarns.  So I chose one that sparked my fancy.

Step 2 - Select Pattern

Since the yarn I chose has color variation, I want the pattern to be as simple as possible.

I am not a fan of color changes and patterning in the same piece.  It seems that a lot of people like this.  However in my experience, few do it well... and I am not one of those people.

While I have a large queue of sock patterns I want to try, I settled on the very simple, Sock it to Me pattern, which I've made a couple of times for Hubba.

Step 3 - Swatch

Since socks need to fit closely, understanding the gauge is essential.

The yarn label recommends US3.  Which is a good place to start... but US2 or US1 may be needed to get the right fabric for socks.

So I went to my inventory of tools.... which was not super successful.  I found a few US2s but only one US3, and nothing else in the range I was looking for.  Which meant I had to dive into the Box o' Unfinished Projects and make some decisions...

Pretty incredible how the idea of starting a simple, small project launches so many other activities. lol.

The resulting decision was to use US1 needles.

Happy Fiber Arts Friday!

Fiber Arts Friday: Interweave Yarn Fest

Toward the end of April, after our former place had sold, I actually had a quiet and restful weekend available..

Saturday was extremely windy, so my plans for outdoor activities were postponed and I took the opportunity to visit Interweave Yarn Fest.

Typically, this show has far more crazy-dyed yarn than I prefer.  But I am usually able to find a couple of vendors that are more up my alley.

Notable was that Eugene Textile Center had Silk Hankies, Noil, Cocoons, and the like...  I've been wanting to try silk in forms other than roving for quite some time... so I brought home some Hankies and De-gummed Cocoons.... all three are undyed.

I found a small amount of Kettle Dyed Yarn from Teton Yarn Company in Idaho.  I love the depth of color with kettle-dyed yarns.  There is some variation which makes it interesting, but not the overt crazyness that a lot of other people clearly love.

Then, on my way out, I noticed The Mendocino Wool and Fiber Company, who I learned about in reading Raw Material a couple of years ago.

They have breed-specific yarns and rovings, primarily in natural colors.  Their fibers are all grown local to them.  I was so excited to meet her, that I nearly gave her hug.

So... as usual, my trip to a Fiber Festival was worth it.  :-)

Happy Fiber Arts Friday!

Fiber Arts Friday: Colorado Weavers' Day, 2022

Colorado Weavers' Day is an every-other-year conference.  It is typically held the first weekend of May, and was founded in 2008.  I learned about it a few years ago, and this was the first time I was able to attend.

Last week, it was hosted by the Handweaver's Guild of Boulder.  The next event, in 2024, will be hosted by the Rocky Mountain Weaver's Guild.

There were four primary speakers, all very good.  As well as breakout sessions and introductions from each of the Guilds in Colorado.

It was quite interesting to learn more about the Guilds.  Some have as few as four members, where others are as large as a few hundred.  All are active in a variety of ways.

I'm thankful that this year was set up to be a virtual event.  As such, attendees came from as far away as Hawaii, Philadelphia, Ontario Canada, and England.

It was quite special for me to be able to spend an entire day dedicated to weaving.... listening to and talking with weavers: specifically about the other things that surround weaving, not just the weaving itself.  It was truly a wonderful event... and now that we're starting to feel settled in our new place, I've started to plan my next weaving project.  I am feeling quite happy.

Happy Fiber Arts Friday!

Fiber Arts Friday: Save Our Sheep Sweater, part 7

So while my Save Our Sheep Sweater was in Time Out and I pondered the options of to-TINK or not-to-TINK, and prepared the next yarn, Tunis, as if I would TINK.

Tunis

This skein would take me past the arm divide and into the effort of knitting 3 sections at the same time.  While I've been thinking I did not want to do this, I will for this breed band.

In each of the breed skeins, I am reserving ~3g to be included as yarn samples for a (hopeful) competition entry later this year... and with 6 rows before the sleeve divide at ~3g per row (same weight is a coincidence), I divided the cake as follows....

• Body:  18g (to get to the divide) + 3g + 50% = 63g
• Sleeves: 25% each = 19g x2
• Total Yarn = 101g

Ultimately, I did TINK.

After TINKing Navajo Churro, this is Clun Forest only

Hopefully, I'll find a way to use the Navajo Churro in this project later.

reclaimed Navajo Churro yarn

Happy Fiber Arts Friday!